Maui not ’immune’ to
hurricane strike
reprinted courtesy Maui News 5/22/07
WAILUKU – The last tropical cyclone to wallop Maui visited Aug. 9, 1871. And although that was nearly 136 years ago, the so-called Kohala Cyclone serves as a cautionary tale against complacency.
Caution was emphasized Monday by Jim Weyman, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Central Pacific Warning Center, even as he forecast a slightly below-average hurricane season for Hawaii and the Central Pacific. Experts predicted just two or three tropical cyclones, compared with an average of four to five, in the season that runs from June through November.
“When I give a slightly below-average forecast it always troubles me because people always think they don’t have to worry, and that is not the message we want,” Weyman said. “The message is it only takes that one to cause tremendous devastation.”
Such devastation on Maui was evident in the August 1871 storm, as reported in the Hawaiian Gazette.
According to that account, during the height of the storm in Lahaina, “coconuts, breadfruit, branches of trees and whole trees might be seen pirouetting and galloping down one street and up another while the horrible roar of the gale, now shrieking like 5,000 steam whistles let off at once, now becoming like magnificent thunder kept up with music to the mad performance.”
Capt. James Makee of Ulupalakua wrote: “The air was literally full of branches, barrels and shingles. It seemed as though the furies were let loose. I finally got into the garden where the trees were falling in every direction, when a gust of wind took me and threw me some 10 feet.”
Glenn James, senior weather analyst at the Pacific Disaster Center in Kihei, on Monday echoed Weyman’s caution.
“People shouldn’t be too complacent,” he said. “It’s easy to sort of think we’re immune . . . but it’s just a matter of time” before a hurricane hits Maui County.
James said the storm could come in years, decades or longer. “The Big Island is not going to protect us,” he said, addressing the notion that Hawaii’s volcanic peaks could slow down or divert a hurricane coming from the southeast.
Weyman said scientists have studied whether the Big Island possibly could shield Maui County from hurricanes, but they concluded that Hawaii doesn’t have a large enough land mass.
“The mountains on the Big Island are like a speed bump to a hurricane,” he said.
Weyman referred to accounts of the 1871 storm as a way of showing how Maui County is not immune to hurricanes. He added that Maui also had close calls with Hurricane Iniki, which devastated Kauai in September 1992, and with Hurricane Daniel in July 2000.
The prediction of a less-active hurricane season stemmed from scientists finding that sea-surface temperatures are colder than average in areas that spawn storms.
Scientists predicted possible La Nina conditions resulting in less tropical cyclone activity, which covers tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes over the Central Pacific.
Those conditions and the overall reduction in hurricane activity in that region since 1995 led to the cooled-down prediction for the June-November season, Weyman said during a news conference.
The islands get an average of 4.5 tropical cyclones a year and one hurricane about every 15 years. Last year, the central Pacific had five tropical cyclones after NOAA predicted two to three.
Since 1959, 62 hurricanes, 67 tropical storms and 61 tropical depressions have been tracked in the central Pacific. The last hurricane to hit Hawaii was in 1992 when Iniki ravaged Kauai, killing six people and causing $2.5 billion in damage.
Hurricane-force winds have never been recorded on Oahu, although scientists say the most populous Hawaiian island is just as likely to be hit by a major storm as the Big Island, Maui, Kauai or any other island in the chain.
If a hurricane does hit Central Oahu, estimates predict damage could reach $30 billion or more with thousands of lives at risk.
With winds up to 150 mph, Iniki left no part of Kauai untouched. It destroyed or damaged more than 10,000 homes and businesses and shattered the serenity of the island.
At the NOAA news conference, Gov. Linda Lingle said she has worked to improve communication between governmental agencies since the October earthquakes on the Big Island, but she warned that residents should be prepared for a hurricane in case the government can’t immediately help.
Lingle said it likely will take the government several days to assist the average resident as officials focus efforts on helping those most in need, including senior citizens, those with special needs and people in hospitals.
“If there is a serious hurricane that hits us, it may take government a while to get to them, so they need to have their own supplies,” Lingle said.
Also on Monday, Lingle signed four emergency disaster preparedness bills and declared this as Hurricane Preparedness Week. She advocated $2 million for grants to be given to homeowners who take wind-resistant measures on homes, including the construction of residential safe rooms. She also signed a bill to toughen the penalties for threatening emergency medical services workers.
The other new laws make it easier for out-of-state contractors to help with disaster recovery and create a nine-member State Building Code Council to adopt a statewide building code that includes hurricane-resistant design standards, Lingle said.
“I’m happy to say it’s been a very uneventful year hurricanewise,” Lingle said, “but we know that part of that is just good luck. And we can continue to work and prepare, but we know that another hurricane will strike us.”
Weyman said the Central Pacific Hurricane Center now will use Hawaiian names for tropical storms and hurricanes. The next one will be called Kika, which means strong and energetic.
The center also will start issuing warnings for the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and Johnston Atoll, which is about 700 miles southwest of Oahu, to inform researchers and official personnel of the possible dangers.
Last year, Bill Unruh and 11 others on the vessel The Searcher survived Hurricane Ioke on the Johnston Atoll because they had more than 24 hours to prepare, but only after Unruh’s wife warned him of the hurricane when they talked on the phone.
“The whole thing was surreal,” Unruh said. “Just earlier in the day we heard about it, and later that night it hit us.”
Unruh said the group spent eight hours tying the ship to the port and bringing supplies to the flat island’s only structure, where they waited out the storm.
On the Net:
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: www.weather.gov/cphc
reprinted courtesy Maui News 5/22/07
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